Particularly this time of the year when the transition to the flat to the jumping is really kicking in.
I understand punting your hard earned cash on horses at such short odds you are expected to think the they will win and are completely bombproof (in an ideal world) but at the end of the day, the trainers or jockeys are’nt anything to do with the odds and fluctuations in the betting markets in the build up to big races thats all realistically based on the exaggerated premonitions of the jumped up traders and alot of things have to be taken in to consideration before backing short priced favourite.
Backing a last time out winner or a previously high class horse reappearing for their seasonal debuts is a risky game and should be analysed as their is alot of key factors to take in as for last time out winners are concerned where they possibly flattered by the grade or horses they where tackling or did the race just pan out for them or is it possible they can’t win again because the winners weight burden the handicapper has allocated them? As the old saying goes “Weight stops trains”
Is the ground conditions and distance to their liking? Alot of if’s with last time out winners personally I would rather take an improver or a unlucky loser out of the field before I would consider a last time out winner.
As is the same principal about backing a high class animal on their seaaonal reapreance as likely they shall not be given a hard time as they will be likely aimed at bigger and better assignments and a light run is anticipated if their in not in contention and if they win it’s a bonus and generally connections are happy enough as they generally they dont show their true colours on coneback run and the majority of the time they may need the run and race fitness counts for alot more than last seasons results, as some horses just dont train on the following year so let them do their thing and judge them after their reappearances.
I think picking your horses without the betting gives you more of a clearer picture and more strategic view on the meeting and future races and a not be as on the judgemental favourite which you foolish think “can’t be beaten” dilemma as the majority of the time they are over hyped up and you will lose out on the long run.