The inaugural Dublin Racing Festival this weekend produced moments of brilliance, incredible comebacks, agony, it also burst a few potential hopes for the impending Cheltenham Festival and beyond.
But who really performed well and who didn’t, here we will take a closer look, analyse the Racing Tracker Ratings at the weekend in the Grade 1 and Grade 2 races at Leopardstown.
Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle – Grade 1
As we can see going into the race Fabulous Saga was the best rated horse, the well fancied Dortmund Park was only 4th best in the ratings, Tower Bridge produced an excellent performance to outweigh his form by some distance. Jetz, Carter Mckay & Dortmund Park have finished exactly where the ratings said they would finish, the obvious disappointment was Fabulous Saga and the form of his Grade 2 and Grade 3 wins going into this have taken a significant knock, for a horse who has shown a lot of stamina, he did not show that on Saturday. He would need to be a watching brief next time as would most of the runners.
Who to Follow
Jetz is the horse to take out of this, he has been very consistent and would be worth a follow in any future entry in a Grade 2 or Grade 3, he falls just short of a proper Grade 1 contender.
Coral Dublin Chase – Grade 2
A few questions needed to be answered going into the Coral Dublin Chase and I think we got them. Min and Simply Ned faced off again, but the back class of Min put him ahead despite the last race shenanigans in the reversal, where Min attempted a Conor McGregor type move to get the win.
Yorkhill was 4th in the ratings and that was mainly due to his poor show over Christmas in the Lexus and once again the Ratings got his chances correct despite him being well touted amongst many.
Ordinary World was the ratings topper just and that was mainly due to Min’s 2nd against Simply Ned, but he also has strong Graded Form finishing 2nd and 3rd on 6 of his 7 in Graded company. If you watch the race again, he was running a mighty race until that terrible mistake t the last when a length behind Min and likely would’ve finished second. Therefore, the ratings principally had the race well predicted. We can say that no horse outperformed their Racing Tracker Rating, but Min returned with a bang and looked back to his best. Yorkhill produced another lacklustre display and is ow best avoided.
Who to Follow
The two horses clearly to take out of this are Min and Ordinary World who looks to have improved from his 3rd behind Simply Ned and Min at Christmas to now, despite the fall and could be a decent EW bet for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, he is a General 50/1 at Non-Runner No Bet that is decent value considering his consistency in graded company and was 3rd in the race last year. The question with Min is where, will he end up, a lot will depend on Douvan and whether he turns up in the champion Chase, if he does, I would not be surprised one bit if Min ends up in the Champion Hurdle, here is why. Faugheen will not win it based on what we have seen this season, Yorkhill is not going to win anything soon unless he dramatically improves, and Melon is not good enough, so Mullins is left with Bapaume and Wicklow Brave amongst his remaining entries alongside Min.
It’s a potential move that may or may not materialise, but very interesting none the less.