Trainers and jockeys often receive a lot of unnecessary criticism when their horses do not prevail when highly expected too on seasonal return or early on in the campaign. Particularly this time of the year when the transition to the flat to the jumping is a gradual process. There is a lot of racing until the end of April.
I appreciate punting your hard earned cash on horses at such short odds you are expected to think the they will win, completely bombproof (in an ideal world) however at the end of the day the trainers or jockeys aren’t anything to do with the odds fluctuations in the betting markets, that’s all realistically based on the exaggerated premonitions of the irrational traders. Several things have to be taken in to deliberation before backing short priced favourites.
1 LAST TIME OUT WINNERS Backing a last time out winner or a formerly high class horse re-emerging for their seasonal debuts is a hazardous game and should be analysed in-depth, as there is a lot of key factors to take in as for last time out winners.
2 GRADE HOPPERS Where they perhaps flattered by the grade or horses they were tackling, or did the race just pan out for them? Is it thinkable that they can’t win again because the winners weight burden, the handicapper has allocated them? As the old saying goes “Weight stops trains”.
3 THE GROUND AND YARADGE FOCUS Is the ground conditions, and distance to their liking? There’s a lot of if’s and but’s with last time out winners. Last time they ran well was their more in their favour? I would rather take an improver, or a unlucky loser out of the field, before I would consider a last time out winner.
4 SEASONAL RETURNS High class thoroughbreds on their seasonal comebacks aren’t likely to be be given a hard time, they will be possible be aimed at bigger and better assignments, if they win it’s a bonus and generally connections are happy enough, as they largely they don’t show their true colours on comeback runs. The majority of the time they may need the run and race fitness counts for much more than last seasons results, Some horses just don’t train on the following year, so let them do their thing and judge them after their reappearances.
5 FORGET ABOUT THE BETTING Picking your horses without the betting gives you more of a clearer picture and more strategic view on the meeting, rather than lumping on the over-hyped favourite, which you foolish think “can’t be beaten” predicament. The majority of the time they are too short and you will lose out in the long run for certain.