A mug punter is often defined as someone who basically bets on the horses with no desire of making a long term profit and with no consideration of doing research on the event they are betting on, (reckless to say the least)
If you read this blog, then I doubt that you are a mug punter but it’s important that we comprehend the way that they think so we can avoid it.
It doesn’t matter what you are betting on, racing or sport, the most significant thing is discipline. Only bet on something you really want to bet on and don’t just bet on something because it is there. Don’t chase your losses and if you lose, so be it, there is another race coming up tomorrow.
Some punters appear to back a few winners but somehow always finish behind at the end of the day. How can they turn this around?
One thing you shouldn’t be doing is ploughing away for six races and turning your £50 into £350 and then go and have £350 on the last race trying to make £700 because that’s pointless. Stick to a constant staking plan also Don’t have bigger bets to get out or to get further in front. It is not a one-day race we are playing here, were in it for the long haul
Don’t Bet on Favorites
There is no statistical benefit to betting favourites. The realism is that favourites only win 25%-30% of the time. Given the return on investment is generally even money or less, it doesn’t make sense to risk money for such a small return. Instead, punters should be focusing on horses carrying odds between 3-1 and 7-1. Most of these horses are in form, in class and have a reasonable chance to hit the finish line first. Horses in this odds range hit the winner’s circle about 42% of the time, representing the best value in a given race
A horse trained by a top trainer or ridden by a top jockey is certainly worth watching, but it hardly offers enough justification to create a real punting opportunity. However, horses with successful jockey/trainer combinations warrant a second look.
The reality is trainers and jockeys are very superstitious. When they start having success teaming up on horses, they like to keep the momentum going. A trainer may use a variety of jockeys, but they typically have a “go to” jockey they want to use when a horse is “live.” Pay attention when a trainer goes to his go to jockey on a horse for the first time.
While a large majority of the people who bet horses are leisure punters, serious punters carry the most knowledge and often bet the largest amounts, amounts big enough to change a horse’s odds. Instead of looking at the listed odds to see what a particular horse is offering, it might be a good idea to note the odds of each horse at three minute intervals starting with the morning line odds. If there is a substantial move in the odds either up or down on a given horse, it might be the indication of a live horse or a horse that is “dead on the board.” If the odds move down more than 40% from the morning line, someone with money likes the horse and it should be noted.
There is nothing stopping recreational punters from learning how to read a racing form or form guide. The information listed might seem a bit frightening, but there are some straightforward pieces of information (speed figures, class, jockey/trainer combinations) to help even the most inexperienced punter get a bigger priced winner.
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